By ecoRI News staff
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — Discussions on curbing climate change tend to focus on comprehensive, emissions-focused measures: a global cap-and-trade scheme aimed at controlling carbon, or a tax on all carbon emissions. But a new study by researchers at MIT finds that a “segmental” approach, involving separate targeting of energy choices and energy consumption through regulations or incentives, can play an important role in achieving emission reductions.
The recently released study, by assistant professor of engineering systems Jessika Trancik, was published in the journal Environmental Science and Technology. Trancik is joined on the paper by three MIT graduate students: Michael Chang and Christina Karapataki of the Engineering Systems Division and Leah Stokes of the Department of Urban Studies and Planning.
“A policy that’s focused on controlling carbon emissions is a different kind of policy than one that’s focused on the underlying demand-side and supply-side technology drivers,” Trancik said. And while those calling for sweeping, emission-focused policies have often faced uphill battles in regions, states and nations, a wide variety of segmental policies have been adopted by such jurisdictions, making it important to understand the effectiveness of such approaches, she said.
“There are some things that these segmental policies do very well,” Trancik said, noting, in particular, dealing with the inertia associated with existing infrastructure. “It will be expensive to retire new power plants early, and so with each power plant built we are committing to emissions not just today, but in future years.
“Compliance with a carbon-focused policy can come either from changes in energy consumption levels or technological change, and a set of segmental policies can ensure that both types of change happen concurrently.”
The issue is urgent, according to Trancik. The paper shows that when accounting for infrastructural inertia, the carbon intensity of new plants built over the coming decade — that is, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per megawatt of power produced — will need to be reduced by 50 percent, as compared to today’s levels, in order to meet emissions-reduction commitments that have been made by most nations.
The study found pluses and minuses to both segmental and carbon-focused approaches to reducing emissions, said Trancik, noting that what may ultimately be needed is a carefully planned combination of both. The ideal may be a hierarchical approach, she said, “that would involve capping carbon dioxide emissions, but then using these segmental policies to address particular areas of concern, where the market alone may not have sufficient foresight.”
These issues are at the heart of climate negotiations. Trancik noted that “understanding the various drivers of emissions, and how influencing each can affect overall emissions, is important to moving these discussions forward. A global agreement on carbon emissions would be most effective at reducing the risks of climate change, but in the meantime a segmental approach can be helpful.”
Decisions made over the next decade will have long-lasting effects on overall emissions, according to Trancik. “Can we control emissions sufficiently through these segmental policies?” she asked. “How might approaches focused on new technologies and on energy efficiency work together?”
The research was funded by the Solomon Buchsbaum Research Fund.